Category: Markets
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Inflation is Good?
You’re probably asking yourself, “Whoa there, cowboy. Inflation is good? How are rising costs be good? How is less disposable income good? It costs twice as much to fill up the fridge as it did six months ago? How is that good?!” I borrowed a majority of these ideas from a recent interview by Russell…
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What’s the Point, Powell?
Thoughts of a Liberal Arts Graduate on the Fed, interest rates, inflation, demographics, and more The entire point of low interest rates was to shift consumers up the risk ladder. Lower potential returns in lower risk baskets purposefully pushed investors toward riskier options; pushed them to take more risk, for the same reward. The Fed…
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Market Performance and a Little Optimism
This one goes off the rails a bit toward the end. If you get bogged down, I’d skip to the conclusion. Thanks for reading. Those who are waiting, stashing their dry-powder (cash) in savings accounts, may have missed one of the greatest opportunities to purchase equities since 2009. Let’s have a look at how select…
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Why Capitalism Might Not be the Future
There’s a famous story of a Russian diplomat in the Cold War era who visited an American city. In Russia, bread lines were a daily occurrence. People waiting in line (not working and producing) for bread and food stuffs. When the diplomat visited the American city and saw there was bread on every shelf, he…
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Is Active Management Dead?
I’d like to attempt to disavow a common misconception with trading in equity markets. Before you read, answer the following question: What’s more important to trading: seeking gains or avoiding losses? In popular media, the best traders are those that can pick the winners better than the rest. Hot take, the best traders are those…
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Most Dangerous Groups to Financial Stability
Today’s market is frothy, no doubt about it. Everything’s near all time highs, even as central banks are set to cut rates again. There’s over 16 trillion dollars in negative yielding debt outstanding in global bond markets. Global growth and inflation have been tepid. Corporate debt issuance in the US is booming with cheap credit…
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Global Investment Themes
Main themes as I saw them from the 2019 CFA Annual Conference in London: Growing Inequality Sustainable Investment and Climate Change Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Big Data The first of these themes can be tied to the remaining three. Inequality There is a tangible dispersion between the haves and have-nots of the world, in…
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Recipe for a Market Crash
Earnings season is upon us and a diabolical mash of market conditions is converging to make it an interesting one. Let’s get cooking. Ingredients: Two tablespoons of rising stock prices One cup rising price to earnings ratios One cup falling dividend yields 2 cups falling earnings estimates A dash of slowing global growth One scoop…
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Two Kinds of Smart
How do you define intelligence? A scene from Good Will Hunting comes to mind. “My boy’s wicked smaht.” What does wicked smaht leadership look like? Here’s how the hard sciences are defining intelligence: The equation above was developed by Shane Legg (Deepmind) and Marcus Hutter. It states that intelligence is directly related to achieving positive outcomes across…
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